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East Aurora Advertiser Column: Morgan’s Market Musings: The Crystal Ball – Predictions for 2025

Bob Morgan January 8, 2025

 
As we welcome 2025, we will continue our tradition. I will make a handful of bold predictions for the coming year, and you, our gentle readers, will get to delight in my folly when I review how I did at year’s end. So, my life as a modern-day Nostradamus continues, and we can see how I fared at year’s end.
 
First a review of last year’s bold predictions, where you can all reap the payoff of my incredible inaccuracy. I came in at about 50 percent, which is a hall of fame level for a batting average, and is much better than the Buffalo Sabres win percentage. So at least there’s that. Here’s unpacking last year’s predictions.
 
  • 2024 Bold prediction #1 – Mortgage rates will settle into the fives. INCORRECT. It was close at one point, and got to the low sixes, but it never made it into the fives.
  • 2024 Bold prediction #2 – Inventory levels will increase. CORRECT. Inventory levels increased modestly in 2024 both locally and nationally.
  • 2024 Bold prediction #3 – Home prices will increase. CORRECT. Prices continued to rise in 2024 locally and nationally.
  • 2024 Bold prediction #4 – The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) and many of the largest New York real estate brokerages will be named as defendants in a New York based class action price fixing lawsuit. MOSTLY INCORRECT. NAR and many of the largest brokerages in New York state were party to a nationwide settlement with plaintiff’s prior to a New York specific lawsuit getting off the ground.
  • 2024 Bold prediction #5 – The next President of the United States will be younger than 78 years old. INCORRECT. While the online betting markets in 2024 briefly got to over 50 percent likelihood for this prediction, it was ultimately incorrect. The gerontocracy is safe for now.
So here we are. Onward to our 2025 bold predictions, where more mediocrity in prognostication is sure to ensue!
 
  • 2025 Bold prediction #1 – Mortgage rates will settle into the fives. I’m doubling down here. If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again. I do think that we will see modest help from the Federal Reserve, which will live in tension with some inflationary policies regarding tariffs with the new administration. Still, I think that we will make more progress with interest rates, which leads us to…
  • 2025 Bold prediction #2 – Inventory levels will increase. Lower interest rates and more time for the public to become normalized to higher rates should lead to another modest increase in people selling their homes. I do believe the demand will continue to outstrip supply in 2025.
  • 2025 Bold prediction #3 – Home prices will increase. I’m just going to keep doubling down here. See supply and demand above for my rationale.
  • 2025 Bold prediction #4 – NAR and its local affiliates like the Buffalo Niagara Association of REALTORS® (BNAR) will face legal challenges to make access to Multiple Listing Databases available to non – NAR members. I believe that this will be an inevitable consequence of the NAR litigation that happened in 2024, and it will continue the inevitable erosion of NAR’s influence on the residential real estate market.
  • 2025 Bold prediction #5 – The equity markets will like 2025. This is a little off the real estate specific track, but I predict that the S&P 500 will end the year more than 15 percent ahead, and growth and speculative investments, including crypto currency like bitcoin, will rise even more than that. A disclaimer here – this should not be construed as investing advice from me or the East Aurora Advertiser, and I am completely unqualified to offer the same.
Here is wishing you all a very happy, healthy and prosperous 2025. I look forward to revisiting the accuracy of my crystal ball with you in the future!

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