Leave a Message

Thank you for your message. We will be in touch with you shortly.

Home Search

East Aurora Advertiser Column: Half Time with The Crystal Ball – Five Bold Predictions for 2024 Revisited

Bob Morgan July 10, 2024

 
As we are halfway through 2024, I thought we could check and see how my five bold predictions for the New Year are holding up. It’s also a good way to check in on current market conditions in our area as well.
 
  • Bold prediction #1 – Mortgage rates will settle into the Fives. As of June 25, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.004 percent. I predicted that we’d be in the high fives by the turn of the year, and although it is expected that the Fed will make one or two rate cuts prior to year’s end, and we do seem destined to settle into the sixes, my prediction may have been a little too optimistic.
  • Bold prediction #2 – Inventory levels will increase. This has been true so far, though levels remain lower than historical levels and below the demand level. In June 2024 we had 13 listings in East Aurora, as compared with 10 in June of 2023. A 30 percent increase, but still a paltry level of available homes in our community.
  • Bold prediction #3 – Home prices will increase. Home sale prices, year to date through June of 2024 had a mean value of $343,500 in East Aurora, down 0.4 percent from $345,000 during the same period in 2023. I am obligated to point to a caveat, that with such a low number of sales in our market (a small sample size), a single sale can skew these averages substantially. That said, there is plenty of time for this prediction to end up being correct.
  • Bold prediction #4 – The National Association of REALTORS® and many of the largest New York real estate brokerages will be named as defendants in a New York based class action price-fixing lawsuit. As we covered in a recent column, NAR and certain large brokerages, including some with footprints in Western New York, settled with plaintiffs in what became a national class action lawsuit. While local New Yorkers who qualify as a member of the certified class will have an opportunity to opt into the settlement payments, this outcome is not exactly what was predicted, but not a complete miss either.
  • Bold prediction #5 – The next President of the United States will be younger than 78 years old. As of Friday, July 5, Vice President Kamala Harris had overtaken President Joe Biden as the betting favorite to win the Democratic nomination. Harris’ chances to be the Democratic presidential nominee have improved to 44 percent, or +127, while Biden’s chances have dropped to 35.3 percent, or +183, according to electionbettingodds.com, which averages live odds from Betfair.com, FTX.com, Polymarket.com, PredictIt.org and Smarkets.com.
Trump remains the odds-on -139 favorite to win back the White House (58.2 percent chance). My prediction had more to do with male life expectancy and the criminal justice system, but this prediction remains very much alive. And interestingly, if the incumbent resigns in advance, there is now a non-zero chance that we will have our first female president, who is under 78 years old, prior to the election. 
 
It seems like it will be a mixed bag for these predictions as we head into the back half of 2024, but I am comfortable predicting that things in our market will remain unpredictable.

Recent Blog Posts

East Aurora Advertiser Column: Morgan’s Market Musings: Volatility is the New Normal

In January, consumer prices climbed at the fastest monthly pace since August 2023.

East Aurora Advertiser Column: Morgan’s Market Musings: The Crystal Ball – Predictions for 2025

Onward to our 2025 bold predictions, where more mediocrity in prognostication is sure to ensue!

East Aurora Advertiser Column: The Spring Market Begins in February

Many buyers start browsing listings and scheduling showings even before the official start of spring.

A sleek, modern kitchen with white cabinets, a large island, a built-in oven, and a white bouquet in a glass vase.
East Aurora Advertiser Column: Morgan’s Market Musings: Rates Drop, Pendulum Swings

These conditions create a market with relatively little available home inventory for sale.

Light modern living room
East Aurora Advertiser Column: What’s the Current Pulse of the Market – End of Summer Check-In

Due to pent-up demand, the market is absorbing that inventory fast.

East Aurora Advertiser Column: Morgan’s Market Musings: Navigating our Competitive Market: Some Tips for Homebuyers

Multiple offer situations have become the norm, making it challenging to secure your home.

East Aurora Advertiser Column: Half Time with The Crystal Ball – Five Bold Predictions for 2024 Revisited

It’s also a good way to check in on current market conditions in our area as well.

Modern open kitchen and dining area with sleek black accents, glass wine wall, and floor-to-ceiling windows.
East Aurora Advertiser Column: Morgan’s Market Musings: Your Home is Probably Worth More Than You Think

The economics of supply and demand predict that with a lower supply of housing inventory.

East Aurora Advertiser Column: Morgans Market Musings: The NAR Settlement – What Does it All Mean? Part 2

There have been several developments since last month’s column.

View All

Experience the Difference

Working with Perfect Place means more than just buying or selling a home—it means experiencing a higher level of service.

Contact Us
Get in Touch
Contact Details

PERFECT PLACE

(716) 655-4445

[email protected]


ADDRESS

652 Main St

East Aurora NY 14052